LATEST SEAT WISE SURVEY: UPCOMING DELHI ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS IN 2020
Our THN Group recently concluded a Survey pertaining to the upcoming Delhi Assembly Elections, due in February in 2020. No Surprise, Arvind Kejriwal is all set to retain the Power Back as the CM with his credible face with a comfortable majority. It seems that Delhi is quite far for the BJP yet again, which has been out of power from the NCT of Delhi since 1998 now, amounting to more than two decades of longing for Power. Despite the Modi Magic, Delhi seems has chosen its ruler in befitting Arvind Kejriwal yet again, who has recently been wooing people with the Freebies that he has been gifting to the Janta.
Firstly, talking about the Survey, our team extensively worked upon every Assembly Constituency (while Delhi has Seventy (70) Assembly Constituencies), taking a sample size of 1000 Voters from each Assembly. The survey which started on 1st October 2019, concluded on 30th October 2019 and is the latest and perhaps the first-ever to give out the names of potentially winnable candidates from each Assembly Constituency. The names, however, are as per the last fought election candidates, assuming that the similar candidates from 2015 might be chosen to contest the elections, by the Parties.
Note: We do not mean to endorse or demean any Party/Individual/MLA/Past Candidate or upcoming candidates, in our Survey. Our Survey is a People’s Choice, based on a list of questions pertaining to Delhi in overall development, Local Issues, CM Candidate Choices, `MLA’s performance, behavior, outreach, communication, Ease of access, etc.
The Survey Summary
Before we get to the numbers and the list, we must share what our team learned while on the ground. While AAP seems to retain most of the seats, it might not be due to the local MLAs but only and only on Kejriwal’s Popularity.
In our survey, we found a pretty comfortable victory for the Aam Aadmi Party, which is all set to once defeat the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Indian National Congress, hands down. Yes, the AAP looks set to come back to power in a consecutive term and with a comfortable majority. AAP might not achieve the Historic mandate this time, that it received in 2015 but it might garner a whopping victory over BJP and AAP, which seem to gain a little as well from these upcoming Elections.
Delhi Assembly Elections 2015’s Figures
It is well known that AAP did the unprecedented in 2015, winning 67 of the total 70 seats while BJP was reduced to just 3 and Congress was whipped out from Delhi with 0 Seats and while it ended on the third position in almost every constituency.
Challenges for Kejriwal despite of a Majority Prediction.
While Kejriwal seems to have gained a lot of acceptance of people in Delhi, his biggest challenge though is that just like Modi in the centre, the entire election will be based and woven around Kejriwal. Arvind Kejriwal is making his work count and people are accepting his words it seems. But, but, the choice of candidates might be a big headache for Kejriwal. Kejriwal does have a lot to boast off about his do’s in Delhi including the latest trend of Freebies that he has started just at the right time when the elections are nearing, but his many candidates have become stained with many of them facing trials or either having being convicted. Some are surrounded by Controversies and some just haven’t kept up to the popularity of AAP and underperformed, it seems from the Public views.
There goes a list of Kejriwal’s such lawmakers Starting from, The Speaker of Delhi Assembly, Mr. Ram Niwas Goel, who is currently MLA from Shahdara Assembly, has been convicted recently by a court in rioting case and sentenced to six months in prison, along with his co-convicted son. Though he managed to get the bail immediately but the fact is that while the elections approach, he might be out on bail, contesting the elections, making it real controversial for AAP and Kejriwal.
As we said there is a list of such candidates, we will quickly move on to AAP legislator from Narela, Sharad Chauhan who was arrested by police in connection with the suicide of a woman worker of the ruling party. Coming on to Pawan Kumar Sharma, AAP’s law maker from Adarsh Nagar, he was sentenced to 18 months’ imprisonment and imposed a fine of Rs1 lakh upon by a Delhi court for negligently causing the death of an employee in his steel factory. In the que of the tarnished imaged MLA’s, an FIR was filed against Rithala’s AAP MLA, Mohinder Goyal on charges of Rape. On the other hand, AAP MLA, Rituraj Jha from Kirari was caught betting on camera. Jitender Singh Tomar, Delhi’s Former Law Minister was arrested in Fake Degree Case. Aam Aadmi Party’s Sadar Bazar MLA, Som Dutt was sentenced to Six Months of Prison by a Delhi Court and Sent to Tihar Jail. An FIR was filed against AAP’s MLA from Karol Bagh, Vishesh Ravi in the case of Extortion. In the same spree, Vikaspuri’s AAP MLA, Mahendra Yadav was arrested for rioting and assaulting a Government Official. Naresh Balyan, AAP’s Uttam Nagar MLA was detained by the Income Tax Department in IT Raids upon him, in alleged fraud of 2 Crore Indian Rupees and while Badarpur’s MLA from AAP was booked for abuse of a woman. Raju Dhingan, AAP legislator from Trilokpuri, who even faced criticism while getting the ticket for the first time for his controversial image, was also booked for assaulting a man. These were just a few examples and there are many more AAP’s elected MLAs, who went into legal troubles post 2015. The lawmakers have many small-time and even major matters pending just like in the case of Amanatullah Khan and Somnath Bharti, the AAP MLAs from Okhla and Malviya Nagar, respectively, who have always been controversial. All this information is very much in the Public Domain and at the access of fingertips of even a child.
Therefore, while our team went into surveys, we were not much bothered about the legal matters of the legislators since we didn’t have this issue on our priority list as our priority was Development and the change in Governance, that Kejriwal claims, that he has brought into the city. But we were amazed to hear about the legal affairs of their MLAs from the Public itself and realized how important an issue this would become, not just for the opposition, but even Kejriwal himself, majorly during ticket distribution. When Kejriwal entered politics, he promised a zero-tolerance policy against any of his tarnished imaged, charge-sheeted, or Convicted Candidates and said that he would go up to the extent of even canceling the Candidature/Ticket of any such Person, from his Party. He even did so during 2013 elections, while a candidate from Shahdara, namely Mr. Surender Sharma was first given Party ticket but was then which was taken back by Kejriwal, because of reports of pending cases against him. But now, when almost two dozen of his AAP MLAs haven legal matters to take care of and out of which some also bear important portfolios in the Kejriwal cabinet, it will be inserting to see whether Kejriwal will stick to his ethics and Party norms on which he entered Indian Politics or just be another Politician won’t be bothered much. Well, only time will tell what Mr. Kejriwal has in mind for his MLAs with tainted images, which could have a massive impact on results and even lead to infighting in the Party. But for now, with what our Surveys lead to, Kejriwal must be satisfied, but we are sure, will think twice on this very important matter, which came up in our survey and hence we thought to highlight. Also, it is pertinent to mention that the figures we have are estimates. Remember 2015, when all surveys failed to predict such a huge victory for AAP. Well, this stage, even a minute mistake by the incumbent can lead to a blunder, which we are sure, CM Kejriwal is intelligent enough to avoid.
Finally coming to the figures before we put out the Constituency wise list out of the estimated winners.
If Elections are held as of today the results seem to be in the following manner as per our survey, based on the Public Views:
Total Seats in Delhi- 70
Hence, you can see that it is yet again a landslide victory for AAP or rather Kejriwal, not as huge as what it was in 2015 but a pretty much satisfactory win. But once again, to clarify, it’s just estimation with a sample size of 1000 People/Voters from each constituency and actual Results may differ.
The Concern for Kejriwal even Post Positive Survey
While CM Kejriwal must rejoice these numbers, he must also be worried that in our survey, about 24 constituencies favored AAP but not the local Legislator due to reasons varying from their attitude, non-seriousness, underperformance, and most importantly non-clean image and legal affairs. For sure this is a massive reason for the opposition to rejoice can be a game-changer if Kejriwal lets it go by, in overconfidence and who knows the figures might switch, leaving AAP mistaken of their confidence in their alleged work that they are banking upon and the Freebies that they think will have a major roleplay in giving Kejriwal an upper hand. It all depends upon the prudence of Mr. Arvind Kejriwal, how he will tackle the ticket distribution.
Note: We do not mean to demean to endorse any MLA or Candidate. These are Public Views that we are jotting down in our article and this Survey.
As awaited, here we put out the Constituency Wise List of the Probable Winning candidates/parties.
Following important things to be noted that were a part of our Survey form and hence the estimated results:
- The Names are not Final Names.
- The Names of the Candidates have been taken as based upon the last Delhi Assembly Elections. (Candidates of the said election)
- The Changes from 2015 till date have been taken in to account like, Candidates Switching the Parties or being Disqualified, etc.
- Where there wasn’t a candidate name of a certain party due to any change, our team gathered the Survey for the party getting majority in that Constituency.
- These are estimated winning names of candidates/parties and actual results may differ.
Following notation in the list:
- N/A = Candidates/MLAs/Seats, which might get affected in getting the Party Ticket or the Public prefers other candidates/party over the sitting/ruling one.
- AAP = Aam Aadmi Party
- BJP = Bharatiya Janata Party
- INC= Indian National Congress
- Others- Include Regional Parties, Independents.
S. No. AC NAME ESTIMATED WINNER PARTY 1 NARELA N/A AAP 2 BURARI SANJEEV JHA AAP 3 TIMARPUR PANKAJ PUSHKAR AAP 4 ADARSH NAGAR N/A AAP 5 BADLI DEVENDER YADAV INC 6 RITHALA N/A AAP 7 BAWANA RAM CHANDER AAP 8 MUNDKA N/A AAP 9 KIRARI N/A AAP 10 SULTAN PUR MAJRA SANDEEP KUMAR AAP 11 NANGLOI JAT RAGHUVINDER SHOKEEN AAP 12 MANGOL PURI N/A AAP 13 ROHINI VIJENDER GUPTA BJP 14 SHALIMAR BAGH REKHA GUPTA BJP 15 SHAKUR BASTI SC VATS BJP 16 TRINAGAR N/A AAP 17 WAZIRPUR RAJESH GUPTA AAP 18 MODEL TOWN N/A AAP 19 SADAR BAZAR N/A AAP 20 CHANDANI CHOWK N/A AAP 21 MATIA MAHAL N/A AAP 22 BALILMARAN IMRAN HUSSAIN AAP 23 KAROL BAGH N/A AAP 24 PATEL NAGAR N/A AAP 25 MOTI NAGAR SHIV CHARAN GOEL AAP 26 MADIPUR GIRISH SONI AAP 27 RAJOURI GARDEN MANJINDER SINGH SIRSA BJP 28 HARI NAGAR N/A AAP 29 TILAK NAGAR JARNAIL SINGH AAP 30 JANAKPURI RAJESH RISHI AAP 31 VIKASPURI N/A AAP 32 UTTAM NAGAR NARESH BALYAN AAP 33 DWARKA ADARSH SHASTRI AAP 34 MATIALA N/A AAP 35 NAJAFGARH N/A OTHERS 36 BIJWASAN SAT PRAKASH RANA BJP 37 PALAM DHARAM DEV SOLANKI BJP 38 DELHI CANT KARAN SINGH TANWAR BJP 39 RAJINDER NAGAR VIJENDER GARG VIJAY AAP 40 NEW DELHI ARVIND KEJRIWAL AAP 41 JANGPURA TARVINDER SINGH MARWAH INC 42 KASTURBA NAGAR N/A BJP 43 MALVIYA NAGAR N/A BJP 44 RK PURAM ANIL SHARMA BJP 45 MEHRAULI N/A BJP 46 CHATTARPUR N/A AAP 47 DEOLI N/A AAP 48 AMBEDKAR NAGAR AJAY DUTT AAP 49 SANGAM VIHAR N/A AAP 50 GREATER KAILASH N/A BJP 51 KALKAJI AVTAR SINGH AAP 52 TUGHLAKABAD N/A AAP 53 BADARPUR NARAYAN DUTT SHARMA AAP 54 OKHLA AMANATULLAH KHAN AAP 55 TRILOKPURI N/A AAP 56 KONDLI MANOJ KUMAR AAP 57 PATPARGANJ MANISH SISODIA AAP 58 LAXMI NAGAR N/A BJP 59 VISHWAS NAGAR OM PRAKASH SHARMA BJP 60 KRISHNA NAGAR N/A BJP 61 GANDHI NAGAR N/A BJP 62 SHAHDARA JITENDER SINGH SHUNTY BJP 63 SEEMAPURI RAJENDRA PAL GAUTAM AAP 64 ROHTAS NAGAR JITENDER MAHAJAN BJP 65 SEELAMPUR MOHD. ISHRAQUE AAP 66 GHONDA N/A BJP 67 BABARPUR GOPAL RAI AAP 68 GOKALPUR FATEH SINGH AAP 69 MUSTAFABAD N/A INC 70 KARAWAL NAGAR N/A AAP
Breaking Down the Estimated Winners’ list
Now before we conclude, it is very important to understand the estimated seat wise result and talk about the highs and lows of the same.
- Interestingly, Aam Aadmi Party seems to retain the majority with 47 Seats but the public on almost 24 seats is vague about their MLAs next candidature due to above-discussed factors and these seats also include some high-profile seats and also seats which the 2015 AAP Candidates won with humongous Margins. They Did Prefer AAP and Kejriwal though, on these seats, rather than the candidates.
Note: These are Public Views and hence being put up as they are.
- Indian National Congress seems to be gaining 3 Seats from Zero. Now, this is big news and could be a sign of happiness for the Congress Party, which was demolished in Delhi in 2015 and even as of today seems no future in the 2020 Elections. But even in such a scenario, nailing three seats could be a good motivation for the party for their Politics ahead. Here we are Breaking Down the gain of Congress with the Survey as per the Public Views.
- Badli- Devender Yadav is Pretty Strong and is well popular, already a two-time Law Maker from the Constituency. He has been working hard and if given ticket, is a probable candidate to win the seat win not much but a narrow margin.
- Jangpura– Tarwinder Singh Marwah, a three-time MLA from the same seat is much adored for his work in the area and approach towards the Public. He can be game-changer in this Constituency for INC and make it difficult for AAP and BJP and win with a decent margin, provided he is given the ticket to the contest.
- Mustafabad- Though BJP’s Jagdish Pradhan is the sitting MLA from this Assembly, but it is evident that he won in cross-voting and might not be able to retain the seat this time, if he contests. INC stayed on number two in 2015 here, and lost by a narrow margin of just 6031 votes, pushing AAP on the third number. When Surveyed, people’s view hinted towards INC gaining from BJP and winning this seat, but people were unsure of their candidate here from INC and favored the party instead.
2. Bharatiya Janata Party seems to be gaining finer seats if not good enough, jumping from just 3 to 19 seats, as estimated. Here we breakdown the Seats for you, based on Public views, in a quick read through.
- Rohini- Vijender Gupta, the Leader of the Opposition seems a sure shot winner if he contests on the BJP ticket. He is well strong in the area and moreover, it is an urban area and even in a direct fight, Gupta can manage to pull off the seat with a good Margin.
- Shalimar Bagh- Rekha Gupta, if given a ticket, can pull off the victory with a thin margin, provided INC performs well here and the cross voting helps her along with her good image and stronghold and the Urban Area Votes favoring BJP.
- Shakur Basti- A two-time MLA from this Assembly, SC Vats switched to BJP in 2015 and kept the fight on in a neck and neck battle with the current Health Minister of Delhi Satyender Kumar Jain, during the 2015 elections. Though he was in a direct fight with the AAP candidate but the stronghold of SC Vats got him closer to the victory when he lost with just a minimal margin of 3133 Votes. If Vats doesn’t switch back to INC, as the reports are rolling in the media allegedly, and if he is given theBJP ticket, SC Vats, as the surveys speak is predicted to win with a huge Margin in 2020.
- Rajouri Garden- BJP’s Manjinder Singh Sirsa lost in 2015 to AAP’s Jarnail Singh but won back the Bypolls on the same seat in 2017. He is the incumbent MLA from the area but has worked enough to grab the seat with a decent margin in 2020, provided he contests on the BJP ticket. He is also the President of Delhi Sikh Gurudwara Management Committee and is a renowned Sikh Leader, whereby this Constituency is Sikh Dominated.
- Bijwasan- Sat Prakash Rana, a two-time Legislator, if given the BJP ticket, might turn the tables around this time and win the Bijwasan seat with a pretty Narrow Margin though.
- Palam- Dharam Dev Solanki a very senior BJP leader and a 4 time MLA from Palam lost with a huge margin. But going by the surveys, he might bag the Palam seat with a thin Margin this time and is the strongest contender for Party ticket. However, it is set to be yet another direct fight here between AAP & BJP.
- Delhi Cantonment- Karan Singh Tanwar is a very senior BJP leader and a three-time MLA from the said constituency. Provided the current AAP MLA from the area has been surrounded by controversies and Karan Singh Tanwar’s experience and networking is a way to strong, he might win the seat with a good margin if given the ticket. If we go by the surveys, he is touted as the only contender from BJP, who can grab this seat.
- Kasturba Nagar– This is one seat where the public seemed not much happy with the current Legislature’s works. Moreover, if Congress Neeraj Basoya gets the Party Ticket, he can be a spoilsport for the AAP and the seat can shift away to BJP with a very-very thin margin.
- Malviya Nagar- Though the sitting Councillor from BJP Dr. Nandini Sharma, who also contested the 2015 MLA Elections could be one of the choices of BJP, but is also incumbent Councillor from the area and hence faces some flak as well from the Public. Similarly, the incumbent AAP Legislator and very popular, Mr. Somnath Bharti has had a pretty controversial term throughout and does not enjoy a good reputation in Public, as per People’s views. Hence, when surveyed, People here wanted BJP to come into power, though not sure of who they look as the candidate.
- R.K Puram- in the 2015 Elections, the BJP lost with a huge margin of 19,068 votes, but the fall of Congress Candidate was a major factor in the same. Former MLA Anil Kumar Sharma here has a good hold and has been active in the Constituency and has good chances of winning a seat on an edge, if given the party ticket, but only if the Congress fights back. Either way, the victory might be very marginal.
- Mehrauli- In 2013, the current Parliamentarian from West Delhi, Parvesh Sahib Singh, won the Delhi Assembly Elections with a narrow margin but then he entered the Politics of the Centre. The 2015 Delhi Assembly elections were a big letdown for the BJP candidate Sarita Chaudhary here and Naresh Yadav from AAP managed to sneak the victory. But his ride has been pretty bumpy here as the MLA and he has had major legal matters and was also sent for Judicial Custody in the Quran Desecration Case. Thus it has impacted his image. Also, Congress has performed better than others here and if it could perform better than 2015, this might be the BJP ruling seat yet again. Also, there is a certain amount of core BJP Voter present on this seat. People were unclear of their candidate though but BJP seemed to flourish here with a decent margin.
- Greater Kailash- A yet another high-profile seat, and moreover dominated by an urban population, the BJP seemed to gain the edge over AAP here, in our Surveys. This could be a big jolt to Kejriwal if AAP loses this seat because Saurabh Bharadwaj, the incumbent AAP MLA is also Party Spokesperson and has even won the MLA of the year award in 2017. But as of today the game seems changed and favoring BJP here.
- Laxmi Nagar- Another high-profile seat which once ruled by senior Congress Leader Dr. A.K Walia (Former Delhi Cabinet Minister) seems to topple for AAP as the BJP seems to take the lead here. Though there is a lot of infighting in BJP for the ticket on this seat, as we heard from People while on the ground for Survey. Maybe because the BJP Leaders see a potential Victory in Laxmi Nagar Assembly Constituency.
- Vishwas Nagar- Vishwas Nagar is one of the safest seats for BJP as Om Prakash Sharma, the current MLA has a strong networking plus the BJP Cadre on this seat that gives him an edge. People seemed satisfied with the MLA’s work and if given a ticket, he might win again, but with a little lesser margin with which he won in 2015. The main reason for that being the Anti-Incumbency factor of the sitting MLA though.
- Krishna Nagar- This has been the safest seat for BJP always. Though in 2015, BJP’s CM Candidate Kiran Bedi lost with a narrow margin here, but many believe that it was due to the party infighting that she lost. This seat once belonged to BJP veteran Dr. Harsh Vardhan, who is currently the Central Minister of India and rumors are such that he might well be the CM face yet again in 2020 and can grab back this seat with humongous margin. But even if the Party doesn’t seem keen enough to send him back to the State Politics, Krishna Nagar seems in the domination of BJP.
- Gandhi Nagar- Interestingly once this was Congress dominated seat as Arvinder Singh Lovely, former Cabinet Minister of Delhi won this seat 4 times in a row until 2015, when he called it quits and didn’t contest the elections. But could you believe that even this seat seems to drift away and not in the favor of AAP, but BJP this time, as per the Views of the public. The core reason being a lot of cross-voting on this seat, which may divide votes between AAP and Congress and might give way to BJP with a narrow margin.
- Shahdara- Shahdara is a Super High-Profile seat. The Incumbent AAP MLA here, who also happens to be the Speaker of the Delhi Assembly, Ram Niwas Goel is facing a lot of criticism from people for not showing up in 4 and half years and just appearing in the last six months, as People claim. People also complained about his attitude and almost zero Public Outreach. Also, his recent conviction and Jail Term in the case of Rioting, by a Delhi Court added on to his problems, bringing him a stain over his image. On the other hand, it is interesting to mention that there is a lot of buzz in the area about BJP-Akali leader and Ex-MLA from Shahdara, Jitender Singh Shunty here. Shunty is a Social Activist who runs an NGO which provides Free Ambulance, Hearse Van, Blood Donation, etc and people claim that Shunty is available at just a call even at 3 am. Many claimed that even after losing the 2015 elections, he has always been super active in the area. It won’t be wrong to say that Shuntyis Public’s Man. Thus, in Shahdara, even in a direct fight between AAP and BJP, if Shunty is given the BJP ticket, he seems to sweep away the seat hands down with a humungous margin with his own strong Vote Bank and Party Cadre.
- Rohtas Nagar-Many names are doing rounds from BJP here as our team learned on the ground. AAP won this seat in 2015 but seems to be losing the grip now. BJP’s Jitender Mahajan, if given the party ticket might win the seat with a good margin, provided Congress Performs exceptional like in 2015 here. In a direct fight though, it will be tougher for BJP here. However, Public views were anti-AAP here and moreover pro BJP and Mahajan.
- Ghonda- Former MLA and Congress Leader Bhisham Sharma joined the BJP in 2019 and is a strong contender of the ticket from the BJP party here as BJP veteran and Five Term MLA, Sahab Singh Chauhan’s passing away has left back a vacuum on this seat for BJP. Though many names are doing round in the market but many spoke of Bheeshma Sharma having a good hold here and while criticized the AAP Governance by local MLA. Still, as we do not know who the candidate could be from BJP as the 2015 candidate passed away, we left the question open in Public and BJP might have an upper edge on this seat.
So, to summarize the Survey, the 2020 Battle of Delhi seems pretty interesting. As of today, Kejriwal may rejoice, but must not forget that he will have to think a lot over ticket distribution and about facing BJP’s Campaign, which will begin anytime soon, while AAP has already given away most of the agenda on which they would contest the elections. In Politics, things change each minute, so we never know what might be the results, but as of today, Arvind Kejriwal seems to sweep Delhi again while BJP and Congress seem to gain their Vote shares and seats.